Over the past few weeks a number of commentators have been suggesting that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) may rise as early as September and most certainly by December this year. The events of the last two weeks have certainly put a stop to any likelihood that rates will rise in the near term. Even before the recent events, we believe it was premature to talk about increasing rates. Our economy is really still in recession despite the official figures. Unemployment is still around 6%, youth unemployment is increasing at alarming rates and retailers are finding it a particularly difficult trading environment. Exporters are suffering with the high exchange rates. There is a strong argument that we should cut our rates further. Our OCR, at 2.5%, is still well above the USA, at a quarter of a percent, the UK at half a percent and the Eurozone at 1.5%. We are lower than Australia at 4.75% but they have a booming mining sector and we do not.
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