For many of us in New Zealand, Donald Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in the US election last week came as something of a shock. In a move that has been likened to Britain’s Brexit, the world watched as the growing strength of the anti-establishment, anti-globalisation undercurrent propelled Donald Trump into presidency. One week on, many are wondering what changes to expect when the 45th President of the United States takes his place in the White House.

Trade agreements and the New Zealand economy
Under Mr Trump’s regime, New Zealand’s trade relationship with the US is likely to look quite different. Mr Trump has already announced he would cancel the US’s participation in the Tran-Pacific Partnership, a controversial trade arrangement with 12 countries that seeks to deepen economic ties between these nations, slash tariffs, and foster trade to boost growth.

As a small country dependent on trade, Mr Trump’s win is a potentially negative result for New Zealand.  While the US isn’t our largest export market, it still accounts for around 11.7% of our total goods and services exports, with key exports to the US including meat, dairy and wine.

"We're a trading nation, we depend on exports, the US is our third biggest export market," said Head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners, Mark Lister.

"We're not in the firing line right away - it's China and Mexico and those places where Trump perceives jobs to have been taken away from Americans... but anything that reduces global trade is a negative for us."

Property and mortgage rates
Investment experts say the results of the US election could have a profound effect on New Zealand’s mortgage rates, and it’s likely that interest rates and inflation will jump considerably.

"A lot of Trump's policies are pro-growth, they will create inflation - it will mean higher interest rates and that will flow through to us in New Zealand," Lister said.

If Trump spends aggressively on infrastructure as he has signalled, deficit could blow out and therefore interest rates could go up further.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to watch the US Federal Reserve to see if it hikes rates in December.

Where to from here?
At this stage, it’s not clear what changes we can expect and it may simply be a case of waiting until the dust settles. There’s a good chance that markets have overreacted to a Trump win and we could see a far more benign outcome than many expect.